XRP’s rise on November 6 was part of a larger recovery trend that began on October 19, when New York investment firm Grayscale refiled its trust transfer application Bitcoin Sign spot ETFs with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Additionally, XRP’s price momentum improved after the Dubai International Financial Center Free Trade Zone received regulatory approval. In other words, DIFC financial institutions can now legally trade XRP tokens.
Additionally, the rise in the XRP/USD pair comes ahead of Ripple’s Swell conference in Dubai on November 8-9 amid rumors that the blockchain payments company could announce a stock IPO ( IPO) plans.
This year’s expansion could be significant. No idea what will be announced, but here are the possibilities:
initial public offering
New User(!) – After a year of silence, we may get more details if #ripple Still considers itself primarily a payments company.
— Angry Kahneman (@WKahneman) October 27, 2023
The XRP market has seen similar bullish reactions to the Swell event in the past.
Additionally, Ripple may have received a boost last week from the National Bank of Georgia, which selected Ripple to develop its central bank digital currency (CBDC) project Digital Lari.
Accumulate XRP whales
The rise in XRP price on November 6 also came against the backdrop of strong accumulation behavior by the wealthiest investors.
Notably, the supply held by addresses with balances between 100,000 and 1 billion XRP tokens peaked in November 2023, according to data source Santiment.
Meanwhile, XRP’s social dominance, which measures its mentions on crypto social media compared to the top 50 cryptocurrencies, has risen to its highest level since July 2023.
XRP Open Interest Increases 13.5%
XRP’s climb comes amid modest gains in its derivatives markets.
For example, the cryptocurrency’s open interest (OI) – which represents the total contracts still active – increased by nearly 13.5% in the past 24 hours to $751.75 million. This is still lower than the $1.19 billion in open interest following the July court ruling on the SEC and Ripple lawsuit.
Meanwhile, XRP’s OI-weighted funding rate dropped to 0.01% every 8 hours on November 6, from 0.03% yesterday. This is equivalent to 0.2% on a weekly basis, indicating that long positions are covering the cost of leverage. But note that financing rates below 1% per week are not expensive.
Considering there is no need to use leverage through futures contracts, it’s reasonable to wonder whether the hype surrounding Ripple’s Swell will convince derivatives traders of further XRP price gains.
However, XRP technical analysis shows a 25% rise
From a technical perspective, XRP price is well-positioned for an eventual rise before entering a possible pullback. Therefore, bulls will focus on $0.90 in 2024.
The $0.90 target coincides with a confluence of resistance consisting of the multi-month uptrend line (purple), the multi-year downtrend line (black), and the December 2021 to March 2022 to March 2022 resistance range (red) .
However, this potential rise to $0.90 would put XRP’s weekly relative strength index above 70 (overbought territory), increasing the risk of a pullback. For example, the price of XRP fell by more than 50% in July 2023 after the RSI exceeded 70.
In this correction scenario, the downside target appears to be near $0.55, a 20% discount from current prices. This level is consistent with XRP’s resistance levels in October 2022 and March to June 2023.
Another reason to watch the $0.55 level is that it serves as the multi-month uptrend support line for XRP/USD and its 50-week (red) and 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) (blue).