HODL record: 90% of Bitcoin supply unchanged in past 3 months


Cryptocurrency market is recovering, prices are rising Bitcoin Bitcoin (BTC) rose 28.5% in October, but the most important question is whether the 2023 rally is the beginning of a new bull market or a correction period after the market bottoms.

Online analysis provides clues about the stage of the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market cycle we are currently in. One of the more interesting indicators is the HODL Wave, according to which nearly 90% of BTC supply has not changed in the past 3 months.

Additionally, many late-stage investors from the previous cycle have turned to long-term holders (LTH). Since November 2021, they have failed to deliver returns near their current all-time high (ATH) of $69,000.

This is why they are currently holding on to diamonds and waiting to sell until the cryptocurrency market picks up again. In previous cycles, it was their movements that marked the beginning of a mature bull market.

HODL wave indicator shows BTC supply reaches ATH in 3 months

HODL Wave is an on-chain metric that aggregates all active supply age groups. Each colored band shows the percentage of existing Bitcoin that has moved most recently during the specified time period. The closer the color is to red, the younger the transferred coin. The closer to purple, the older the coin is.

It is worth noting that over time, the color of a given coin remaining in HODL (not transferred) mode will change to purple. When a coin transfers, the HODL Wave indicator immediately identifies the youngest red band, identifying transfers from the past hours and days.

The HODL Wave is currently showing a very interesting situation that applies to all ages from 3 months onwards. On the long-term holders’ bar chart – from yellow to purple – we see a new all-time high (ATH). Currently, 89.1% of the BTC supply is not flowing, trading, or changing hands.

In the previous cycle, before hitting the cycle bottom in December 2018, it was 83.5%. By comparison, two cycles ago, supply that had been unchanged for over 3 months reached a historic ATH 85 in July 2015, at 6%.

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