Many analysts are speculating on the outcome of the spot Bitcoin ETF race, and CEHV partner Adam Cochran shared his views in a Nov. 8 X post.
From Cochran’s perspective, while the outlook for other ETFs is good, Digital Currency Group (DCG), and more specifically asset management arm Grayscale, may have a tough road ahead.
The impact of the fall of Genesis
Cochran said DCG CEO Barry Silbert’s situation is due to the closure of Genesis, a lack of updates on the GBTC conversion following the court case, a lack of price arbitrage opportunities for smaller trusts, ongoing discussions surrounding potential fraud investigations and the ongoing legal case with Gemini, All of this adds to a climate of uncertainty and worry.
In a follow-up post to his post, Cochran went on to share that while it is still possible to obtain GBTC conversion, the likelihood of GBTC being approved does not necessarily insulate Silbert and Grayscale from broader challenges.
Cochran ended the post by questioning whether the 10% discount offered was worth the decision not to hold BTC directly while awaiting BlackRock’s possible approval.
continue the game
A few days ago, Valkyrie Investments co-founder Steven McClurg said that the SEC is expected to approve multiple spot Bitcoin ETF applications in November 2023.
In his review, McClurg noted that the company had effectively addressed concerns raised by regulators related to market manipulation. So while the SEC is likely to issue another round of comments to entities filing ETF applications in the next one to three weeks, the 19b-4 rule change could be approved soon.